Monday, April 17, 2006

Hmmm..

The US, EU, Japan and Israel are no longer transferring money to the PA. Thats probably about $800 million of direct transfers to the Palestinian treasury and another $900 million in support for ongoing humanitarian and infrastructure projects.

The $50 mil that came from Iran and $50 mil from Qatar would probably need to become monthly payments to keep the PA afloat.

I doubt that this will happen - the Arab states have never been very consistent in funding the Palestinians - and so the Hamas government should be bankrupt within a couple of months. Then all hell breaks loose. The optimistic scenario is a short quick coup led by the usual characters - Fatah and Fatah dominated security forces. The pessimistic scenario is a descent into anarchy and civil war.

Boris.

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