Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Something is rotten with these exit polls. This 'pensioners party' has 6-8 seats? Thats 150,000-200,000 votes. I'll wait for the real results.

If the exit polls are correct then I am extremely surprised by the results shown by the Labor party. They won 20-22 seats. Considering they must have lost a bunch of seats to the 'pensioners' this demonstrates some major strength within that party and means that some people younger than 50 are actually voting for Labor. For a while the Labor party's voters kept getting older and I believe the statistics for the last election (2003) showed that under the age of 30 or so only 1.5% of the people voted for Labor.

This pensioners party is very surprising as well. Completely out of left field. I am still trying to figure out where these people came from... Probably mostly former Labor voters. Maybe also some former Shinui voters (though this is less likely since Shinui was very very right-wing on economics).

One thing that is clear is that if Sharon was still in control of Kadima they would have taken 40+ seats easily. Of the 12-14 that went to Israel Beitenu half would have voted for Sharon. Probably most of the 'pensioners' voters would have also gone for Sharon. And a few extra seats would have come from Labor and the Arabs.

In any case Kadima and Labor will now start arguing over ministerial positions within the next government... It will be interesting to see how fast the 'pensioners' get co-opted into the next government. Kadima/Labor/Pensioners/UTJ would probably be a very stable government. Kadima also has a bunch of other coalition options available to it.

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