Tuesday, March 28, 2006

I am following the Israeli elections. These are going to be some weird results. The Russian party - Israel Beitenu - might surpass the Likud as the 3rd largest party in Israel. This is especially true if the voting doesn't pick up within the 1 hour or so that is left. It looks to me like the predictions and polls that were done before the election are going to be proven useless.

With low voting, organization becomes more important. Kadima, Labor, Likud and Meretz have shitty organizational abilities. Shas, Israel Beitenu, UTJ and National Union are very well organized. Israel Beitenu will fill up buses with old Russian people and drive them to the voting places. The rabbis of Shas & UTJ will instruct every person capable of voting for these parties to go to the polls. National Union is a settler / settler supporter party.. Very well organized and energized following the Gaza withdrawal...

And now for something completely out of my ass:

Kadima gets 33
Labor gets 17
Israel Beitenu gets 14
Likud gets 13
Shas gets 12
National Union gets 9
UTJ gets 7
Meretz gets 6
The Arab parties get 7 combined
The Pensioners party gets 2.

Lets see how close I get.. Note that Kadima will form the next government - Kadima, Labor, Shas or Kadima, Labor, Meretz, UTJ


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