Thursday, March 30, 2006

Because of the votes of soldiers, Kadima & Meretz gain a seat each giving Olmert the ability to create a 61 MK 4 party coalition (Kadima, Labor, Pensioners, Meretz).

This coalition will be stable as long as Kadima marches to Labor's tune. Meretz can't stay in the government if Labor leaves, so Labor effectively controls 25 MKs out of the stable core of the 61 MKs in the likely coalition.

If Labor at some point believes that it has a chance to win an election and form a government it can force elections.

So I guess the question now is how long this will take.

Another interesting thing is to watch what happens on the Israeli right. There are 4 [relatively] small parties - Likud, Israel Beitenu, NRP and National Union. Together they control some 32 seats. Some mergers seem likely. If Kadima ever crumbles (possible), the right might be able to form a government. (32 + Shas + UTJ = 50 + Pensioners + 4 renegade [former Likud] Kadima MKs = majority.


Blogger E$ said...

Didn't the votes get recalculated again, with someone in the coalition winding up down one?

11:28 AM  

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