Saturday, January 28, 2006

So here is the situation with Israel & Hamas.

Hamas' victory is not very important. There were no talks with the Pals before, there will not be any now. There will also be no pressure on the Israelis to talk to the Pals. It is a shift, but I am not sure whether its that much worse for the Israelis. Before there was discussions of whether the PA isn't acting against terrorism because it doesn't want to or because it logistically can't. Now that question is moot. There is no way to make Hamas act against terrorism (ehh itself?). Because there is no question of the possibility of negotiations, Israel will proceed with unilateral steps. Israel will continue building the wall and separating from the Pals. It will set up checkpoints in the West Bank and there will not be any traffic between Gaza and the WB for a long time.

Hamas will try to maintain a cease-fire, but its in a worse position to do so than the former government. While Israel probably will not target Hamas targets its still open season on Islamic Jihad. In order to maintain a cease-fire Hamas will have to pressure Islamic Jihad into submission (unlikely). It should be understood that the Israelis will continue killing Islamic Jihad ppl.

Hamas also needs to maintain 500 mil. euro / year coming in from Europe. Even if this money is received Hamas will have lots of trouble paying everyone on the PA payroll. The PA payroll consists of tens of thousands of armed men, mostly affiliated with Fatah and al-Aqsa. Fatah also has its own armed groups which will in any case will not come under the supervision of a Hamas gov't.

If Hamas doesn't maintain a cease-fire or put a cork in Islamic Jihad Israel will reinvade all areas under PA control.

The PA should collapse pretty soon. I don't know what happens next.


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