Friday, October 28, 2005

Larry Wilkerson, chief of staff at the Department of State between 2002-2005 trashes the decision-making process in the white house.

Very interesting read... US forces are apparently staying in Iraq for 5-8 years more. Wilkerson believes that leaving now will mean that the Turks might take Iraqi Kurdistan and then the Syrians and Iranians might get involved in the other parts of Iraq. Were this to happen the Iranians would control both the Iranian and southern Iraqi oil fields and be in a good position to destabilize Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The US will then have to go back within 10 years with a larger force to take and secure the oil fields. Wilkerson comes back to the fact that the US uses disproportionate amounts of energy and resources and thus needs secure access to the resources of the Middle East. Unless this changes (unlikely) the US is tied to the Middle East.

There are many other interesting things in Wilkerson's presentation and in the Q&A session that followed. To me the most interesting was the entire intelligence establishment's belief in Iraqi WMDs. This position was apparently supported by foreign intelligence services, including the French, the British and the Germans.

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